Former Georgetown assistant Kevin Broadus enters his eighth season at the helm of Morgan St, who comes off three straight 7-7 MEAC seasons in which his teams finished between 315 and 334 nationally in KenPom. KenPom predicts a decline in success, if you can even call it that, this year, suggesting a 357 ranking, which would be good for sixth in the MEAC.

Coach Broadus returns starting lead guard Rob Lawson and a trio of rotational bigs in Trent Edwards, Marland Harris, and Christian Oliver (who redshirted in 24-25 with an injury after a decently productive 23-24 season). Of all the returners, Edwards was the most promising analytically as Morgan St. had a -2.7 NET rating with him on the floor compared to a -22.1 NET rating with him on the bench. Much of this had to do with how the Bears defended with him on the floor, allowing 1.03 PPP (points per possession) defensively compared to 1.18 with him off the floor. He’s very likely to assume a larger role this season to help shore up what was the country’s 347th-ranked defense last year.

Rob Lawson was less of an ON/OFF darling last year. Morgan St. was 13.1 points per 100 possessions better when the point guard, who is very likely to enter his third year as a starter, was off the floor last year. He’s been a super inefficient scorer (three straight seasons with a true shooting percentage less than 48%) while also not much of a creator (14.1% assist rate in 24-25) – so there is a serious chance he could be beaten out in the form of Division 2 Bowie State transfer Elijah Davis. Davis moves back up the D1 level after a promising Division 2 season. Prior to his one-year stint at Bowie, Davis was a rotational player (4.2 ppg) for an Incarnate Word team that ranked 345th in KenPom. Like Lawson, he’s been an inconsistent creator at the D1 level, but his -18.7 NET rating at UIW in 23-24 actually was better than how his team fared with him off the floor (they were very bad).

The very likely engine of this team will be Walter Peggs Jr, a transfer from Division 2 Spring Hill, who had a monster season a year ago. Broadus’ offenses have been extremely reliant on isolation, ranking sixth in all of the NCAA last year, and Peggs is the primary candidate to be able to create in those moments.

At Spring Hill, he straight filled it up, averaging 26 ppg while posting a 65.3% TS (97th percentile) on nearly 30% usage. He’s equipped to survive in an iso-heavy attack, as he was in the 94th percentile in iso attempts last season, which yielded a 77th percentile efficiency rate per CBB Analytics. He did all of this on nine three-point attempts a game, so I imagine his light will be very green. In addition to Peggs, Broadus brings in Alfred Worrell of Southern Miss, who was serviceable for an underachieving team (5-13 in Sun Belt, 293rd in KenPom). He could blossom into a decent scorer moving down an additional level.

This is a game that Georgetown should win comfortably. KenPom projects a 24-point victory, and honestly, I expect more. I imagine Georgetown’s ball pressure will cause a lot of problems, forcing Morgan St. into inefficient isolation opportunities, and their make/miss luck will determine if they can hang around. Offensively, this is a team that they should carve up in transition and create good looks at the rim. It will be interesting to see if they generate and make quality shots from behind the arc, as Morgan St. was one of the country’s worst perimeter defenses last year (336th in 3 PT FG% against) and if Georgetown is missing shots, there should be a major emphasis on crashing the glass against a team that was 360th in the country in allowing offensive rebounds in 24-25.

Either way, it’s extremely exciting that we’re getting real basketball again. Hoya Saxa.